View From America (edited version also posted on SkySports.com 04/22/09)

“It's an intense poker game, and no one's showing their hand.”

Those are the words of University of Southern California quarterback Mark Sanchez, and he’s not talking about a game of cards. He’s referring to the amazingly tight-lipped advance period to this year’s NFL Draft, which will finally reveal all its secrets this weekend.

Normally, you can count on several teams tipping their hand in some way to indicate which way they will go once they are officially ‘on the clock’ for their pick in the annual selection of the cream of the college football talent (a situation so alien to British sport it would positively boggle the mind of the average soccer manager).

And, once it is known who some of the early choices will be, and where they will go, much of the Draft falls into place like a row of toppling dominoes.

But not this year. And there are two (at least) reasons for that.

Firstly, there is no clear, consensus No 1 pick. Georgia quarterback Matt Stafford is top (Bull)dog for some, but others do not rate him even the best QB available this year, leaning towards USC’s Sanchez or even Josh Freeman of Kansas State.

For others, it is a question of the ‘safe’ choice, like Baylor offensive lineman Jason Smith or even Wake Forest’s superb standout linebacker Aaron Curry.

(In this instance, ‘safe’ merely means backing the horse with the less likelihood of being a $70million bust, which leads on to Point Two……)

Secondly, there is now SO much money tied up in the top picks, some teams consider it a bit of an albatross, something to be avoided lest they end up forking out a king’s ransom (plus a prince’s wages and queen’s allowance) for a player like Ryan Leaf, who famously bombed at San Diego after the 1998 Draft, or the anonymous Heath Shuler, a No 3 selection by Washington who failed with both the Redskins and New Orleans and was out of the league within five years.

The bottom line is, for every Peyton Manning or Troy Aikman there are five Tim Couches or David Carrs, players who are destined to be career bench-warmers rather than guaranteed starters – franchise killers, if you like.

When you consider Miami signed last year’s No 1, lineman Jake Long, to a five-year, $57.5million contract, it is the stuff of a general manager’s nightmares to plough that much guaranteed money into ANY college draftee, no matter how star-studded he may appear prior to joining the pro ranks.

Basically, you are asking the team with the top pick to splash out at least $11million a year on someone who just might end up being a washed out drug addict.

(OK, that may be a touch extreme; it’s been a while – some 18 years, in fact – since Todd Marinovich proved to be almost the ultimate bust with the Raiders, but the specter of that kind of horrendous mistake, or that of the steroid-fuelled Tony Mandarich at Green Bay in 1989, still lingers in the NFL air like the whiff of another bad government bailout)

The other ‘wild card’ in this year’s game of bluff and counter-bluff (and the Draft has very much become a game of steely-eyed subterfuge as the leading teams try to mask their intentions in order to position themselves to snap up a ‘bargain’) is that hapless Detroit have the weighty responsibility for that opening gambit.

As a result of not winning a game since December 23, 2007 (actually, the toothless Lions have won only ONE of their last 24 outings), the 0-16 record-breakers get to go first on Saturday. And, depending on who you listen to, they may be the most reluctant suitors since someone announced Lucrezia Borgia was looking for a new husband.

Just to start with, Detroit have a truly terrible recent history in the Draft. The likes of Joey Harrington (picked No 3 in 2002, and now a distant No 3 on the depth chart at New Orleans), Mike Williams (a No 10 in 2005, now absolutely nowhere) and the epically-named Ikaika Alma-Francis (a defensive end from the 2007 second round who has managed precisely two starts) have all helped heap embarrassment after embarrassment on the Lions.

Happily, at least, the man most responsible for their recent history of Draft futility (88 picks since 2000, barely 20 still on the roster; four first-round wide receivers, of whom only Calvin Johnson remains; 12 defensive linemen, and only four survivors, none of whom are considered starters), ex-general manager Matt Millen, is now out of the game.

But the thorny problem of how you rebuild a team as bad as this, even with two first-round choices and two third-rounders, remains another millstone around their collective necks.

The fans have already stated their preference for Curry (at a fan event to unveil the team’s new uniforms on Monday, they chanted the name of the Demon Deacons outside linebacker, along with cries of ‘Don’t draft Stafford!’ – talk about getting your boos in early!) and he would certainly come with a (slightly) smaller price-tag than the Georgia quarterback.

Many pundits still believe the Lions would be only too happy to trade the top pick for something more manageable and less high-risk (like, presumably, buying some of the government’s toxic bank debts), so don’t rule out some serious Draft-day machinations behind the scenes.

The rest of the Day One process at New York’s Radio City Music Hall should fall into place depending on what happens with that fateful No 1, so viewers should pay special attention to the first half-hour or so (each team has 10 minutes for their choice in Round One, remember).

Curry, Texas Tech wideout Michael Crabtree, Baylor’s Smith, Texas D-lineman Brian Orakpo and Virginia’s standout O-lineman Eugene Monroe are the Fancied Five on ESPN’s Scout’s Inc (one of the most accurate pre-Draft predictors in recent years), so Stafford may well be one of the biggest losers when push comes to shove.

But it is a brave (or truly poker-faced) man who goes out on a limb just at the moment. I do know it will be riveting TV as the teams try to fathom the labyrinthine options that unfold on the day while the players in the spotlight sweat over their future prospects.

Expect New England to pull the trigger on various trades and switches (the Patriots have no less than 11 selections this weekend, including four in the first 58) and Pat White to be one of the most intriguing possibilities, as the Virginia quarterback is also fancied as a receiver/runner in a Wildcat-type option scheme which many see as the next big ‘wave of the future.’

Just don’t expect much to happen according to a set scheme, as this year’s Draft truly has the scope to be one of the wildest in recent years.